Bitcoin LabBETA
BitLab Market Pulse

Metric Guide

Understand the methodology and intent behind every panel on the dashboard. Each section breaks down the data inputs, smoothing, and signals so you know exactly what you are looking at.

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Top Panel Benchmarks

Context charts that frame price action against key cost basis lines.

BTC Spot Price

Reference line for current market price used across the comparison panel.

Spot price anchors the panel and provides context for how far valuations drift from on-chain baselines. The series reflects the latest block-level pricing pulled from the BitLab API.

Methodology

  • Pull BTC spot price from API.
  • Render as the primary line so it can be contrasted against other valuation metrics.
  • API price → price

How to read it

Price accelerating above cost bases
Signals strong bullish impulse; monitor spreads to judge overheating.
Price testing or slipping below baselines
Marks areas where on-chain holders may defend support or where risk of breakdown increases.

Notes & tips

  • Enable/disable additional valuation lines via the legend to isolate specific comparisons.

STH Realized Price

Average cost basis of coins younger than 155 days, highlighting recent holder positioning.

STH realized price shows what short-term holders paid for their coins. When spot price trades materially above this line, recent buyers sit on profits and are prone to distribution; falling below places them underwater.

Methodology

  • Pull STH realized price from the API.
  • API realizedprice → realized_price_sth

How to read it

Price above STH realized price
Recent buyers sit on gains; drawdowns toward the line often prompt shakeouts or support tests.
Price below STH realized price
Short-term holders are underwater, a setup frequently seen near cyclical bottoms or consolidation floors.

Notes & tips

  • In bull markets STH realized price acts as support. If price is unable to break above it strongly suggest a prolonged bear market is coming.

LTH Realized Price

Tracks the average cost basis of coins held for 155+ days to anchor longer-term conviction levels.

LTH realized price highlights where mature holders last acquired their coins. It rises when long-term owners buy higher and flattens or falls when they distribute into strength.

Methodology

  • Pull the LTH realized price series from API.
  • API realizedprice → realized_price_lth

How to read it

Price comfortably above LTH realized price
Long-term holders sit on sizable profits; historically this zone precedes distribution once momentum fades.
Price converging toward LTH realized price
Shows where higher-timeframe support may emerge if mature holders defend their cost basis.

Notes & tips

  • The LTH realized price is a useful indicator for identifying the deepest bottom zones during bear markets.

True Market Mean Price

Tracks the on-chain value estimated by Cointime Econmics as a fair-value estimate.

The true market mean price comes from Check and Puell’s Cointime Economics framework; see charts.checkonchain.com/webassets/docs/Cointime%20Economics.pdf for a detailed walkthrough.

Methodology

  • Pull the True Market Mean Price series from the API.
  • API cointime_statistics → true_market_meanprice

How to read it

Spot far above mean price
Signals overheated conditions when far above, but price is usually well above.
Spot near or below mean price
Suggests value territory.

Notes & tips

  • True Market Mean Price represents the aggregate on-chain cost price for investors, and is arguably the most accurate such metric.

Market Pulse Gauges

Core dashboard gauges derived from short-term holder activity. These instruments pair a gauge with a sparkline so you can track momentum and current posture at a glance.

Market Sentiment — STH MVRV-Z

Shows how stretched short-term (STH) holder valuations are relative to their aggregate cost basis.

The STH variation of MVRV-Z compares the market value of coins aged <155 days to their realized capitalization and then z-scores the gap. It highlights when recent buyers are in profit or at a loss.

Methodology

  • Pull the STH MVRV-Z from the API at `h4` and `block` resolution.
  • Graph: Plot the raw data without smoothing
  • Gauge: The value at last block.
  • API market_value_to_realized_value → mvrv_z_52k_window_sth

How to read it

Rising above zero
STH are in profit. Sustained moves toward +3σ often mark euphoria and distribution.
Dropping below zero
STH is underwater. Deep negatives typically accompany capitulation and subsequent accumulation.

Notes & tips

  • STH MVRV_Z applies a 52k block (1 years) rolling standard deviation (MVRV-Z) for normalization.
  • Gauge range clamps to ±3σ to emphasise unsustainably stretched extremes.

Execution Pressure — STH SOPR

Captures whether short-term holders are spending coins at a profit or a loss.

Spent Output Profit Ratio for young coins divides realised spend value by the cost basis of those outputs. Values above 1.0 imply profit-taking; below 1.0 indicates capitulation. The dashboard applies a daily EMA to smooth noise.

Methodology

  • Pull short-term holder SOPR at `h4` and `block` resolution from the API.
  • Graph: Apply an EMA with period 42 (≈1 week over h4 data).
  • Gauge: Apply EMA of last 12 blocks, bounded 0.9–1.1 to emphasise extremes.
  • API spent_output_profit_ratio → sopr_sth

How to read it

Above 1.0
Recent buyers are cashing out into strength. Extended runs above 1.02 often appear during bull impulses.
Below 1.0
Spends are locking in losses. Persistent prints sub-0.98 flag capitulation waves.

Notes & tips

  • Watch for breakouts back above 1.0 after a capitulation — they often mark trend reversals.
  • Combining with MVRV-Z helps distinguish profit-taking from structural strength.

Capital Tide — RealizedCap (Δ %/wk)

Measures the week-over-week percentage change in realized capitalization to gauge net capital inflows or outflows.

Realized capitalization aggregates the USD cost basis of all coins. Comparing the current value to last week reveals whether aggregate capital is entering or leaving the chain. A positive delta suggests new demand absorbing supply.

Methodology

  • Pull the `realizedcap` at `h4` and `block` resolution from the API.
  • Graph: Plot the the values comparing to that of 42 periods (≈7 days) ago in percentage terms.
  • Gauge: Plot the RealizedCap Δ of last block to that of one week ago.
  • API realizedcap → realized_cap

How to read it

Positive delta
Realized cap is expanding, signalling net capital inflows and healthy demand.
Negative delta
Capital is leaking out as coins change hands below prior cost basis — typical near local tops or during distribution.

Notes & tips

  • Gauge clamps between −2.5% and +2.5% per week to spotlight extreme swings.

Conviction Release — Liveliness (Δ %/wk)

Tracks whether long-lived coins are finally being spent, indicating conviction shifts.

Liveliness quantifies the degree of economic activity in the Bitcoin network, reflecting the balance between active and dormant supply. Higher prints mean older coins are moving (distribution); lower values show dormancy and conviction.

Methodology

  • Pull Liveliness at `h4` and `block` resolution from the API.
  • Graph: Plot the the values comparing to that of 42 periods (≈7 days) ago in percentage terms.
  • Gauge: Plot the RealizedCap Δ of last block to that of one week ago.
  • API cointime_statistics → liveliness

How to read it

Rising above 0%, particurily beyond 0.1%
Older coins are entering circulation, often signalling distribution from long-term holders.
Falling below 0%
Dormancy remains high; long-term holders continue to sit tight, aligning with accumulation phases.

Notes & tips

  • Gauge emphasises the -0.2% to +0.2% band where most cyclical signals occur.
  • Onchain spending of large chunks of old coins will cause spikes, which may or may not be economicaly significant depending on whether these are actually sold. Pay more attention to the baseline drift than such spikes.
  • Use alongside RealizedCap Δ to confirm whether long-term distribution is met with new demand.

Supply Distribution

Supply wall visualisations that reveal where coins last moved on-chain.

URPD — Cost Basis / Supply Walls

Shows how much supply last moved within each price band to locate demand cliffs and resistance walls.

Unspent Realized Price Distribution bins UTXOs by the price at which they last moved. Taller bars indicate large clusters of coins whose owners' cost basis sits in that price range.

Methodology

  • Pull the latest URPD data from the API (h1 resolution).
  • Limit to relevant price ranges (≥$30k) to focus on the active market.
  • Display as a histogram with a centered smoothed average applied to highlight areas of high unrealized profit/loss concentration.
  • API utxo_distributions → urpd_log_supply_btc

How to read it

Thick supply walls below price
Coin clusters sitting in profit that can offer spot support if revisited.
Dense bars above price
Potential overhead resistance where holders may exit at break-even.

Notes & tips

  • Hover over bins to inspect exact supply counts and price ranges.